Autumn Budget 2024 – What It Means for the Scottish Property Market
The Autumn Budget 2024, announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, is poised to shape Scotland's housing market with potential changes in taxes, energy policies, and mortgage trends. This budget comes amid high inflation, a cost-of-living crisis, and increased energy prices, all of which affect property affordability and investor confidence.
Property Taxes and Impact on Buyers and Investors
One of the most significant impacts anticipated in Scotland involves potential increases in property-related taxes. Reeves’ budget may signal increases in Capital Gains Tax and other property investment taxes. For buy-to-let investors and landlords, higher taxes could limit the profitability of expanding property portfolios or cause some to exit the market altogether, affecting the rental supply and likely increasing rents due to reduced property availability.
Additionally, first-time buyers and investors are likely to remain cautious. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 5.42%, a cost that impacts affordability across Scotland. Reduced mortgage competition could further strain affordability for buyers already facing high borrowing costs.
Energy Efficiency and EPC Rating Requirements
Energy efficiency remains a primary focus, with Reeves reinforcing the UK’s commitment to improving Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) standards. In Scotland, this aligns with the Scottish Government’s goal of reducing carbon emissions in housing. New funding for retrofitting homes may drive demand for properties with high EPC ratings, as homeowners seek to avoid costly improvements. This focus on energy efficiency could particularly impact older properties, where retrofitting costs may become a barrier for sellers aiming to meet these standards.
Scotland’s Housing Demand Outlook
Despite economic uncertainties, demand in areas like Edinburgh and Glasgow is expected to remain relatively strong due to their attractiveness and potential rental yields. However, the volume of transactions may decrease as affordability challenges persist, pushing some homeowners to either delay selling or accept offers close to or below the Home Report valuation. Consequently, 2024 may see more homes listed with fixed prices and a reduction in premiums over Home Report valuations as buyers negotiate for affordability
Mortgage Landscape: Rates and Affordability
Rising borrowing costs have dampened buyer enthusiasm, though there is cautious optimism as mortgage rates stabilize. With some lenders offering rates below 3% recently, there is hope for more competitive rates in 2024. Nevertheless, any significant fiscal changes in the budget could affect the Bank of England’s stance on interest rates, and further rate hikes could push first-time buyers and investors out of the market, slowing down the property turnover in Scotland even further
Final Thoughts
The Autumn Budget 2024 introduces several policies that could reshape Scotland’s property market. With higher taxes for landlords, a push for greener homes, and fluctuating mortgage rates, buyers and sellers alike will need to be mindful of these changes. Investors may consider energy-efficient homes or areas with high rental yields, while first-time buyers might benefit from fixed-price listings and an emphasis on affordability in the coming year.
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